The NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has forecasted a second year of La Nina conditions in the Pacific. Similar to the 2020-2021 event, this La Nina is expected to persist into spring of 2022. The consensus of climate models is forecasting large scale wetter than average conditions over the Hawai'ian Islands region from January through April 2022. The distribution of the rainfall may be influenced by the strength of the La Nina. Stronger La Nina events can have a higher than normal trade wind frequency, which will tend to focus rainfall along the east-facing windward slopes. Weaker La Nina events have more weather systems that produce significant leeward rainfall. Early indications are that the current La Nina may reach moderate levels.
La Nina is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator, and the opposite of El Nino, which features warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in that region.
Senior Service Hydrologist
NOAA – Honolulu Weather Forecast Office
National Weather Service for Honolulu: https://www.weather.gov/hfo/
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